Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 1.930787 2.020188 2.114946 2.223496 2.345229 2.478544 2.637019
2025-11-09 1.822489 1.936260 2.061201 2.210231 2.385472 2.588160 2.845398
2025-11-16 1.747508 1.876510 2.021791 2.200316 2.418030 2.681206 3.034554
2025-11-23 1.686683 1.826104 1.986226 2.187733 2.440994 2.759017 3.208464
2025-11-30 1.648918 1.798760 1.974024 2.199661 2.491785 2.873156 3.442730
2025-12-07 1.583790 1.734878 1.913391 2.146169 2.452724 2.862274 3.495238
2025-12-14 1.544917 1.700422 1.886327 2.132436 2.463270 2.918025 3.652401
2025-12-21 1.506084 1.664072 1.854749 2.110321 2.459820 2.952095 3.778819
2025-12-28 1.491440 1.656546 1.858425 2.133719 2.519460 3.082501 4.086584
2026-01-04 1.483165 1.656246 1.870752 2.168629 2.597138 3.248095 4.495237
2026-01-11 1.458817 1.634590 1.854304 2.163004 2.614829 3.320071 4.742823
2026-01-18 1.440090 1.619301 1.845325 2.166843 2.646261 3.417342 5.069459
2026-01-25 1.406489 1.584715 1.810656 2.134374 2.622394 3.421626 5.200501
2026-02-01 1.383116 1.562557 1.791602 2.122950 2.629968 3.481391 5.483975
2026-02-08 1.362275 1.542996 1.775212 2.114334 2.640980 3.548200 5.812378
2026-02-15 1.341718 1.523175 1.757706 2.103106 2.646718 3.605498 6.141258
2026-02-22 1.330440 1.515097 1.755703 2.114229 2.689261 3.738803 6.777617
2026-03-01 1.298624 1.479129 1.714434 2.065297 2.628658 3.658984 6.658950
2026-03-08 1.280858 1.461422 1.697866 2.052760 2.628772 3.703619 7.018005
2026-03-15 1.261234 1.440808 1.676713 2.032477 2.614432 3.716559 7.269324
2026-03-22 1.256637 1.440085 1.683073 2.054026 2.673367 3.893871 8.373314
2026-03-29 1.255629 1.444067 1.696016 2.086107 2.753274 4.133772 10.235664
2026-04-05 1.242788 1.431713 1.685443 2.080961 2.765420 4.217109 11.373565